Voters say they are more likely to cast ballots in this year’s midterm elections

Three weeks before critical midterm elections, voters are expressing significantly more interest in turning out than they were four years ago, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. Enthusiasm is up across almost all demographic groups, but the increases are greater among younger adults, nonwhite voters and those who say they favor Democrats for the House.

At the same time, President Trump’s job approval rating has risen five points after tying a record low point in August, although Democrats maintain a double-digit advantage in overall support for Congress, the poll finds.

Four years ago, midterm voter turnout fell to its lowest level in more than half a century. Republicans were able to capitalize by expanding their House majority and taking control of the Senate. Today, with that GOP House majority at risk and some close Senate races that will determine who has control of that chamber in January, a 77 percent majority of registered voters say they are certain to vote next month or have already voted, up from a 65 percent majority in Post-ABC polls in October 2014.

Certainty to vote is up 32 points among women younger than 40, compared with 2014. Among men and women ages 18 to 29, it has risen 17 points. Among nonwhite registered voters, 72 percent are now certain to vote, up from 48 percent in Post-ABC polling in October 2014. White men without college degrees represent the one heavily Republican group whose certainty to vote is lower than average and has increased less than other groups since 2014. In contrast, white women with college degrees are up 15 points to 88 percent. For white women without degrees, the figure is up 12 points.

Among voters who prefer Democratic candidates for the House, 81 percent say they are certain to vote, up from 60 percent in 2014. Among those who support Republican candidates for the House, enthusiasm now stands at 76 percent, compared with 73 percent in October 2014.