Russia shows no signs of ditching Iran over Syria

Bolton-Patrushev talks stumble on Iran

We wrote in this column more than a year ago, "Russia welcomes and needs US partnership in stabilizing Syria" while also saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin's "leverage with Damascus, Tehran and Ankara could be weakened, rather than strengthened, by closer ties with the United States. … Putin’s endgame is relief from US-led sanctions. If no sanctions relief is forthcoming, Putin will have little interest in carrying Trump’s water at the expense of his regional ties."

This was the underlying theme in Geneva on Aug. 23 when US national security adviser John Bolton and his Russian counterpart, Nikolay Patrushev, struggled to find common ground on Iran’s role in Syria in the first high-ranking talks between US and Russian officials since the Trump-Putin summit in Helsinki on July 16.

“On the Middle East track, the issue of Iran and Syria appears to have been the most contested. The United States waved off a Russian proposal on the pullback of Iranian forces in Syria in exchange for softening sanctions on Tehran,” writes Maxim Suchkov.

Prior to Geneva, Bolton had visited Israel, where he said that Putin had told Trump that Russia’s “interest and Iran’s were not exactly the same [in Syria]. So we’re obviously going to talk to him about what role they can play. … We’re going see what we and others can agree in terms of resolving the conflict in Syria. But the one prerequisite there is the withdrawal of all Iranian forces back in Iran.”

The Aug. 15 imposition of further US sanctions on Russia cast a pall over the meeting, where Patrushev gave Bolton a set of proposals to consider for the next round of talks. As we wrote here last month, “Putin is not someone who works for free. If he believes he is helping Trump to achieve a responsible exit from Syria, while assuring Israel’s security, this is big stuff, and the Russian president also needs a win from the art of the deal. For Putin, that means relief from at least some of the US sanctions on Russia.”