On the heels of President Trump kicking off his re-election bid in Orlando on Tuesday evening, a new national survey from USA Today and Suffolk University contains encouraging news for his re-election team -- on Trump's overall job approval, his (still meaningless) generic head-to-head standing against a Democratic challenger in 2020, and voters' views on impeachment. A look at some key findings:
(1) In a departure from the national polling average, USA Today/Suffolk's numbers show the president's general approval rating slightly above water, clocking in at 49 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval. The only other recent poll that's even close to positive territory for Trump is Rasmussen (-3), which is often seen as an outlier. By contrast, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's national approval is underwater by double digits at (39/52).
(2) By a narrow three-point margin, Trump currently leads an unnamed 2020 Democratic opponent, (40/37). Nine percent of voters say they'd vote for a minor party, while 14 percent are undecided. That's not exactly a robust position for an incumbent to be in, especially during a period of economic flourishing, but it's more promising than some of the other recent data -- including, reportedly, some of Trump's own internal findings. Separate from voter preferences, voter expectations favor Trump more clearly. By an eleven-point spread (49/38), Americans believe Trump is likelier to win re-election than lose to a Democrat.
(3) Impeachment looks like a nonstarter in this survey. Asked whether the House of Representatives should "seriously consider" impeaching Trump, by roughly a two-to-one margin (61/32), voters said no. But that gap closed to just five points on the question of whether or not House Democrats would attempt impeachment anyway. In other words, many more Americans think Democrats will pursue the I-word compared to those who believe they should. Just one in five outright favor impeachment, while more than twice as many believe Democrats should drop their investigations into the administration. Approximately one-third oppose impeachment but support at least some ongoing investigations.
(4) As for the Democratic primary, Joe Biden maintains a strong lead, doubling the total of his closest competitor. The former Vice President is attracting 30 percent of primary voters, compared to 15 percent for Bernie Sanders. Elizabeth Warren is at ten percent, Pete Buttigieg is at nine percent, and Kamala Harris is at eight percent. No other contender in the vast field tops three percent. Ahead of next week's inaugural 2020 cycle debates, I'll leave you with the two leading candidates getting a little sparky:
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11.29.2024