The poll, conducted March 20 to 22 by Emerson College, indicates that Kasich's presence in the race is taking more votes from Cruz than from Trump. Kasich's supporters view Cruz as more favorable than Trump by an 9-point margin—36 percent to 27 percent.
Some Kasich supporters may move to Cruz when they learn that Cruz is the only candidate who has a shot of beating Trump in Wisconsin's winner-take-all primary. It appears that many Kasich supporters who weren't firmly committed to the Ohio governor ended up voting for Cruz in Utah's primary yesterday.
Another sign that Cruz would win a two-man race against Trump is that an overwhelming majority of Wisconsin Republicans have a favorable view of Cruz, while Trump's overall favorability rating is negative. "Although Trump is roughly even in his favorable/unfavorable numbers with likely GOP male voters (50/47), he is 10 points under water with GOP women (40/50) and net -28 (33/61) with Independents, who comprise one-third of the Wisconsin electorate," according the pollsters at Emerson College. "In contrast, Cruz has a +32 favorability with Republican men (64/32), +26 with women (58/32), and +4 (48/44) with Independents."
The new survey increases the already high odds that Wisconsin governor Scott Walker will endorse Cruz. "You've pointed out that if you're someone who's uneasy with the front-runner, right now there's only one candidate—I think if you're just looking at the numbers objectively—Ted Cruz," Walker toldWisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes Wednesday morning. "Senator Cruz is the only one who's got a chance, other than Donald Trump, to win the nomination. My friend Governor Kasich cannot."
"I believe that I am being called to lead by helping to clear the field in this race so that a positive, conservative message can rise to the top of the field," Walker said when he dropped out of the race in September. Two weeks before he quit the race, Walker was still leading the Wisconsin primary by double digits.
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12.22.2024