Why Trump Will Win Independents in 2020

Like many World War II veterans, my father didn’t talk much about the war, but he occasionally retold one anecdote that clearly made a strong impression on him at the time. At the end of the war, when it became obvious that the Nazis had lost, thousands of German infantrymen suddenly began appearing at the American lines anxious to surrender. This was less about love for our GIs than fear of the Red Army. And it’s not a bad analogy for what Independents will do in 2020. They are ambivalent about President Trump and the GOP, but they are afraid of the Democrats.

Why? Independents see themselves as reasonable people who reject what they perceive as extremism in one or both of the two major parties. Most Democratic positions are now seen as radical by these voters. For example, virtually every candidate vying for the Democratic presidential nomination favors providing taxpayer-funded health care to illegal aliens, but this position is deeply unpopular with Independents. An NPR/NewsHour/Marist poll, conducted July 15-17, found that 67 percent of Independents characterized this proposal as a “bad idea.”

And these people will decide the 2020 election. Gallup reports that 42 percent of Americans identify as political independents, while 29 percent say they are Democrats and 27 percent call themselves Republicans. It is no coincidence that the man who now resides in the White House garnered more Independent votes than did Hillary Clinton. And, if the 2020 Democratic nominee tries to win the general election with the kind of left-wing red meat the candidates have been tossing to the audience in the recent “debates,” it will drive Independents toward Trump.

Consider another crowd-pleaser that has wowed the attendees at the Democratic debates. Virtually all of the candidates propose to “decriminalize” illegal immigration. This idea is even less popular with Independents than providing free health care to “undocumented immigrants,” as the Democrats call them. The NPR/NewsHour/Marist poll found that even more Independents — 68 percent — dislike this proposal. When decriminalization came up in the second Democratic debate, Pete Buttigieg demonstrated that their general position is incoherent:

Let’s remember that’s not just a theoretical exercise — that criminalization — that is the basis for family separation. You do away with that, it’s no longer possible. Of course, it wouldn’t be possible anyway in my presidency because it’s dead wrong.… The Republican Party likes to cloak itself in the language of religion. Now, our party doesn’t talk about that as much largely for a very good reason — which is, we are committed to the separation of church and state.