Last week, I touted an Economist/YouGov poll showing Hillary Clinton getting a massive jump with millennials following the release of the Access Hollywood tape of Donald Trump joking about sexually assaulting women. According to that poll, Clinton had opened up a 43 percent lead with voters under age 30 — winning 58 percent to 15 percent over Trump.
It now appears that poll may have been an outlier.
Fox News and Reuters both have millennial data taken after the Trump tape and the latest presidential debate. Among likely voters under age 35, Fox has the race: Clinton 43, Trump 31, Gary Johnson 16. Among voters under age 30, Reuters has the race: Clinton 43, Trump 17, Johnson 14.
Both had earlier polls in between the tape and the debate that showed Clinton with a bigger bounce that seems to have leveled back down.
So, what does this mean for the race overall? It means Clinton is still underperforming with a key Democrat-leaning group. While her average polling has ticked up around 5 percent in the last month, she is still more than 15 percent behind where President Obama finished with this age group in 2012.
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04.28.2024