President Trump has said that a U.S.-Iranian military conflict “wouldn’t last very long,” implying that the U.S. would emerge triumphant with minimal costs. While the president is correct that a fight most likely would end quickly and the U.S. would dominate it, the short- and long-term damage to U.S. interests would be devastating.
Neither Iran nor the United States seemingly wants a military conflict, but that does not mean one could not happen. Indeed, the likelihood of such a conflict is higher today than at any time since 2011, when Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed intent on a massive strike on Iran's nuclear program, which could have drawn the U.S. into war.
A conflict likely would begin with an Iranian provocation that trips U.S. tolerance, triggering an attack to deter Iran from further provocations. Iran would see this as disproportionate, and the response would quickly escalate. This would be a “fight tonight” war, without a weeks- or months-long buildup of U.S. forces; the U.S. would fight with what it has in the region.
Iran’s strategic goals would be to gain sanctions relief by demonstrating its ability to impact the global economy through control over the Strait of Hormuz; dividing the U.S. from the rest of the world; and gaining international stature by humiliating the U.S. — all while avoiding any internal threat to its regime. U.S. goals would be to bring Iran on its knees to the negotiating table; uphold freedom of navigation; prevent attacks on the U.S. itself; reduce Iran’s capacity to threaten its neighbors; prevent Iran from restarting its nuclear weapons program — and to do all of this with traditional allies and partners.
Though fictitious, here is what such a conflict might look like:
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04.25.2024