The American Presidency Is in Xi's Hands

Donald Trump may have done something brave that no recent president has come close to attempting by confronting China on trade via tariffs — or any other way for that matter. But in so doing, like it or not, he has placed his reelection in the hands of the general secretary of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping. If Xi doesn't make a deal with Trump on trade, we are almost certainly headed for a recession (or worse) and Donald will be out the door.

After that, the deluge. (Take a look at that list of Democratic Party candidates if you think I'm exaggerating.)

On the other hand, a good or decent deal, and "four more years" almost becomes a certainty

Unnerving, isn't it, that the fate of our country is in the hands of a totalitarian? But that's the nature of our interconnected world when the most populous country (i.e., the biggest market) is a dictatorship. That gives China — a five-thousand-year-old culture with little sustained interest in democracy — the upper hand negotiating tariffs or anything else. They just have to wait us out. Xi, after all, is China's "paramount leader" for life (or until another bloodthirsty bureaucrat unseats him). Any American president has at most eight years, probably a lot less, to negotiate successfully.

You think the Chinese don't realize that? They are also undoubtedly fully aware of the open warfare going on in our political class, the Russia probe, etc., placing us in a weaker position still. If you follow the polls, you can bet they do.