PARSING THE POLLS: Final Iowa edition

Donald Trump is the legitimate front-runner in Iowa polls, with a lead in most polls beyond any reasonable error or any small-to-moderate turnout effects.But two last-minute polls — outliers from lesser-known pollsters — show Trump basically tied with Cruz, and Rubio surging.

The bottom line after reading all the polls is this: If statewide turnout is high (above 150,000 Republicans), expect Trump's poll lead to hold; If it's low (below 120,000), Trump's poll lead evaporates. Also, a Rubio surprise is a real possibility.