Of the three major scenarios for Venezuela, U.S. military intervention is the least likely

There are three main scenarios for Venezuela following the decision by the United States and dozens of major world democracies to recognize Juan Guaidó as legitimate president, and to demand free elections to end that country’s humanitarian crisis.

First, one quick note on the latest developments: The so-called International Contact Group created by Mexico and Uruguay to seek a national dialogue in Venezuela will not go anywhere.

As Guaidó told me in a recent interview, he will not accept another “false dialogue” with Nicolás Maduro. At least four times in recent years, Maduro has used dialogues with the opposition to win time, then later jailed his political rivals as soon as international attention shifted somewhere else.

This time, Maduro must go before a transitional government convenes free elections, Guaidó said. Besides, Mexico and Uruguay are hardly neutral countries. Both — alongside Cuba, Russia and China — still recognize Maduro as Venezuela’s legitimate president. Much of the rest of the world — including Canada, the 28-member European Union and Latin America’s biggest countries — recognize Guaidó’s government.

Here’s are three scenarios of what might happen in Venezuela: