Joe Biden faces an uncertain path

New polling nationally and in early voting states shows the race for the Democratic nomination for president tightening, and possibly even fundamentally changing. Despite the substantive lead that former Vice President Joe Biden has held in the polls since launching his campaign earlier this year and his above average performance in the second debate, the momentum of his campaign has been gradually slowing down.

On the other hand, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has seen her polling numbers surge in the last couple of weeks, and it is clear that she is slowly displacing Senator Bernie Sanders as the leading candidate of the progressive movement.

A recent Monmouth University poll conducted among likely Iowa caucus goers speaks volumes to this trend. While Biden still leads the field with 28 percent support, this is nearly identical to his 27 percent support back in April, when he had not yet even declared his candidacy for president. However, the same poll shows Warren in second place, now at 19 percent support, up from 7 percent support in April.

Warren has now become the progressive candidate to beat among the Democrats, and her gains have resulted in losses for her progressive contenders, namely Sanders and Senator Kamala Harris. While Biden still leads in polling nationally, it is clear that the energy in the party is not with him, and it is highly unlikely that he will be able to break above his polling position in the high 20s or low 30s. While Warren rises in the polls and the enthusiasm surrounding her campaign are certainly substantive, she still faces persistent doubts, even among her supporters, about whether she would be able to beat President Trump in the general election.

While her primary campaign has generated excitement, there are legitimate concerns about how her rigid progressivism would fare in swing states, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, that the Democratic candidate needs to secure to win the presidency. Even after Warren won the second debate decisively, a Quinnipiac University poll revealed that she still fell far behind Biden on the question of who has the best chance to beat Trump, as 49 percent of respondents said Biden is the best candidate to beat Trump, compared to 9 percent who said Warren is.