Jamal Khashoggi affair is proving a critical test for US diplomacy

Claims by Turkish officials that investigators have found evidence that Jamal Khashoggi was killed inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul have not completely derailed US efforts to ease the biggest diplomatic crisis between Saudi Arabia and western interests for generations, but it has left the administration struggling for options.

The White House knows it will be straining credulity with its supporters if, as Donald Trump has suggested, it were to accept Riyadh’s claim that Khashoggi’s presumed killing was the result of a rogue operation that went wrong.

Much will depend in the critical next few days on how the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, handles the crisis. He could remain on the offensive, leaving Saudi Arabia, and potentially the US administration, squirming in the court of world opinion, or he could use the Saudis’ miscalculation to bargain to Turkey’s advantage.

Erdoğan has two outstanding grievances with the US: its refusal to extradite the Turkish cleric Fethullah Gülen, whom he sees as the chief conspirator behind a failed military coup in 2016; and its continued support for Kurdish YPG fighters in northern Syria.

Ankara’s demands are more complex in relation to Saudi Arabia, but the Turkish economy, struggling under the weight of a depleted currency and spiralling inflation, could certainly benefit from Saudi Arabian investment.