It Might Be Time To Bolt the GOP

Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist, has published a predictive model of presidential elections for decades. Through three simple factors—economic growth, presidential job approval, and tenure of the incumbent party—Abramowitz explains most of the variation in presidential elections. This time around, his model points to a narrow Republican victory, but he does not believe this result—because the GOP has gotten behind Donald Trump, which "violates a basic assumption of the model that parties nominate mainstream candidates." Meanwhile, the FiveThirtyEight "polls plus" model, which combines polling and economic data, finds Hillary Clinton nearly a 2:1 favorite over Trump.

Admittedly, the 2016 race is still in flux. Clinton's standing in the national polls notably declined after FBI Director James Comey excoriated her over her email server. There is a chance Trump could win. Still, all things considered, this is a race that the Republicansshould win, or it should be a virtual toss-up, at least—if it weren't for Trump.

Bizarrely, the party is unwilling to do anything about this. The stalwarts in the Republican National Committee are telling the New York Times that it's "Trump or oblivion," while almost all of the party's elected leadership is staying quiet. Of the more than 300 current Republican governors, senators, and representatives, only Utah's Mike Lee assisted a final effort to "dump Trump" at the convention.

These leaders are political pros who understand how bad Trump's fundraising is, who have access to the best polling data, and whose careers depend on reading the pulse of the people. Better than anybody else, they know that a Trump nomination likely means a Clinton victory in November.

With that in mind, it's time for conservatives to ask themselves some difficult questions, above all:What is the point of the Republican party anymore?
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