How Xi Overplayed His Hand With America

In the rebalancing of Sino-American relations that's underway, the usual roles are reversed: China's normally deft President Xi Jinping appears to have badly overreached in seeking advantage. And President Trump, who often seems tone-deaf on foreign policy, is riding a bipartisan consensus that it's time to push back against Beijing.The two nations will probably make a trade deal soon, patching together a working relationship that has been frayed by a year of tariffs and economic brinksmanship. Experts predict an agreement that will boost U.S. exports to China, improve market access for American firms and reduce the power of Chinese state-owned enterprises -- and offer some modest new legal protections for American companies whose commercial secrets have been plundered by Beijing for a half-century.

But as Xi jockeyed for position against America, many U.S. experts argue that he misplayed his hand. After decades of what was known as a "hide and bide" strategy of cautious cooperation, the Chinese leader moved to directly challenge American primacy in technology. This eventually triggered a sharp, bipartisan American response, which Trump has harvested.

"In an incredibly divided Washington, one of the only areas of agreement is that China policy needs to be less accommodating and more resolute toward Beijing," says Kurt Campbell, who oversaw Asia policy in the Obama administration. He credits Trump for recognizing Xi's weakness: "China is not yet ready to take on the U.S., and Trump recognizes this."

The Chinese-American confrontation is partly a spy story, but very different than the cloak-and-dagger escapades of the Cold War: China operates its espionage net partly through universities, research institutes and benign-sounding recruitment plans. Until recently, American companies often didn't realize that their pockets had been picked until it was too late.