How Two Congressional Races Show What’s At Stake in the Midterms

Two congressional races in upstate New York reflect a national trend of insurgent politicians challenging Republican and Democratic power structures in the Trump era.In the 24th district, a progressive Democrat successfully defied the national party to win her primary and is running against a centrist Republican incumbent. In the 22nd, a moderate Democrat is posing an impressive challenge to a Trumpian incumbent. Whatever the outcomes, these races will reveal whether the nation is further polarizing or resetting to the center to pose a check on President Trump.

Though New York is a blue state, the upstate region has more in common with the industrial Midwest than it does with New York City. The largely rural region in 2016 went heavily for Trump, who carried 44 of 53 upstate counties. The 22nd and 24th districts in central New York are whiter, poorer, older, less educated, with more military veterans and fewer immigrants compared to the rest of the state and country. Residents feel long neglected by coastal elites. In other words, this is fertile Trump country. The president remains popular with more than half of its constituents, according to recent polling.

In New York’s 22nd district, freshman Republican congresswoman Claudia Tenney has voted for Trump’s positions 96.7 percent of the time. She has charged that Democrats “don’t love America” and that “so many of these people that commit the mass murders end up being Democrats.” At a recent debate, she gestured at reporters, denouncing them as “real fake news.”

An October Siena poll found that 42 percent of Tenney’s constituents have a favorable view of her, whereas 55 percent approve the president. The district, which sprawls from the Pensylvania border to Lake Ontario, has 30,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats. A Trump summer visit to stump for her appears not to have helped much: Her GOP predecessor has endorsed her opponent; a key Republican county executive called her “a national embarrassment;”; and a quarter of registered Republicans report that they plan to vote for her opponent.