Four midterm election signs that show how Trump can win in 2020

When the final results are tabulated, President Trump’s first midterm election will fall short of the “shellacking” endured by Barack Obama, closer to the “thumping” voters handed George W. Bush. But the signs for Trump’s re-election aren’t all bad.

Let’s not sugarcoat it: The Trump-era GOP has a real problem in the suburbs that is unlikely to be resolved as long as he remains titular head of the party. And the Republicans’ failure to compete in Senate races in the Rust Belt — complete with Scott Walker losing his bid for a third gubernatorial term in Wisconsin — does not bode well for Trump repeating in the states where he penetrated the Democrats’ blue wall in 2016.

Republicans still have reasons for cautious optimism, however.

It could have been worse. During Bill Clinton’s first midterm election in 1994, Democrats lost 54 seats in the House and and nine seats in the Senate. Two Democratic senators switched parties to the GOP shortly thereafter.

During Barack Obama’s first midterm election in 2010, Democrats lost 63 seats in the House and six seats in the Senate. Four years later, during Obama’s second midterm election, Democrats lost 13 seats in the House and nine in the Senate, giving Republicans control of both houses of Congress.