Five Reasons Republicans Can Hold the House

Despite conventional wisdom, there is a path for Republicans to hold their majority in the House. Democrats need a net pickup of 23 seats to gain control of the chamber and most election watchers are predicting that will happen. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight is giving Democrats an 84.3 percent chance of taking over. The Cook Political Report thinks the Democrats have a 70-75 percent chance of becoming the majority.  Adding to the pack is Nathan Gonzales’s Inside Elections, which is predicting a Democratic gain of 25-35 seats in the House, with even more possible.

What could go wrong?

For starters, these are the same prognosticators who were shocked that Hillary Clinton didn’t win the presidency in 2016. As White House aide Kellyanne Conway said, “Let’s not forget the same geniuses that predicted a huge romp by that woman who lost in 2016 are the same people predicting a huge win by the Democrats this time.” Perhaps a tad chastened, some election watchers are giving themselves a bit more wiggle room this time. Larry Sabato’s "Crystal Ball" reported last week that although Democrats were favored to win the House, they’ve solidified the pickup of only 19 seats so far -- leaving them four short of the number needed to claim the majority.

Here are five reasons the GOP could upset expectations:

-- The president’s job approval rating acts as a coattail effect and is a strong predictor for the outcome of midterm elections, especially in the House. The reigning theory goes that the higher Trump’s approval rating, the better Republican congressional candidates will do. When the president approval was hovering around 40 percent, the conventional wisdom about a Democratic “blue wave” started to congeal. Then a funny thing happened: His numbers began ticking up. Not a lot, but maybe enough to make a difference.