Early Signs that Washington State’s Curve May Be Flattening and What That Means

The first diagnosis of the Wuhan Virus occurred in Snohomish County, Washington, on January 19, when a 35-year-old man presented with a four-day cough history at a local urgent care facility. He had returned from visiting family back in Wuhan, China. From there, the number of cases grew slowly, but steadily, boosted by a group of cases at the Life Care Center (nursing home in Kirkland, WA). Over 30 patients at this facility have since died from the virus. As the virus continued to spread, the numbers began to increase faster. After March 8, the number of new cases from one day to the next averaged about 50 percent. For example, if there were 500 new cases one day, there would be roughly 750 the following day.

There are signs this rapid pace may be slowing, thus “flattening” the curve. We want to see the ratio of the number of new confirmed cases to the total cases approach zero.

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