Democratic hopes of winning the Senate have faded in the final weeks of the 2018 election, with the party now needing to win every one of more than a half-dozen competitive races to capture control of the chamber.It’s a far cry from a month ago, when Democrats saw a path to the majority opening wider as several battleground races trended in their direction. But in recent weeks, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp’s (D-N.D.) seat has slipped away and looks likely to be a Republican pickup, and Democrats have not opened advantages in any of the three GOP-held seats where they’re on offense, instead trailing in public polling in Nevada and Tennessee.
Democrats would have to turn around both of those races, carry Arizona, and then sweep largely conservative battleground races featuring incumbent Democrats — Missouri, Florida, Indiana, Montana and West Virginia — to win the majority, a prospect several party strategists referred to as picking up an “inside straight” — a low-odds poker hand.
“I am not without hope in terms of these races, but I think we can acknowledge that it's a difficult map and that we've got to run the table,” said Guy Cecil, chairman of Priorities USA, a major Democratic super PAC.
With the majority looking improbable, party strategists have started to cast their eyes further ahead, looking at the 2018 Senate battlefield as a margin game. Just how big the Republican majority will be — and just how many red-state Democrats can win reelection in two weeks — could decide whether the GOP will cement Senate control for years or whether Democrats have the opportunity to wrest back the majority in 2020, when a more favorable array of states have Senate elections.
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04.30.2025