Most of the political world now expects Ted Cruz to emulate his running mate Carly Fiorina by falling down in Indiana. The only question is whether he will be able to get up as quickly.
Whether this conventional wisdom reflects the facts on the ground in Tuesday's pivotal primary state remains to be seen. But in a cruel twist for Cruz, who was gaining on Republican front-runner Donald Trump just weeks ago, Fiorina's unfortunate slip from the stage now looks like an apt metaphor for a campaign coming apart.
The polling overwhelmingly suggests Cruz will lose Indiana. While one poll has the Texas senator up by double digits, seven subsequent surveys have him trailing Trump, the last two by double digits. Cruz is down by 9.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average, even after the unusual move of naming Fiorina as his running mate so far in advance of the Republican National Convention.
After a long drought of Hoosier polling, the Indiana GOP primary may be trending in a direction where picking up anti-Trump votes from John Kasich can't save him, if the on-again, off-again Kasich-Cruz alliance is even still in effect.
Cruz staffers anonymously expressing nervousness in the media could suggest either internal polling that confirms this pro-Trump trend in Indiana or just a loss of confidence within the tightly disciplined campaign after a string of six primary losses in the Northeast.
Get the Exclusive
04.16.2024