If President Trump's re-election prospects hinge on the success of his economic policies, his prospects for 2020 look pretty good right now, a new IBD/TIPP Poll suggests. Americans aren't just more optimistic, but groups not known to be Trump-friendly in their politics are among the most optimistic of all.
We noted in an earlier piece that the U.S. seems to have undergone a significant mood shift, with the share of Americans saying they're optimistic about the direction of the country rising above 50 for the first time since January 2005. Along with that, the Presidential Leadership Index jumped 3.2% to 45.7 in August, the highest since Trump's first month in office.
Those data have been confirmed by the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, which rose 2.8% to 58 in August, its highest since January of 2004. With GDP growth at 4.1% in the second quarter and unemployment currently at an ultralow 3.9%, it's no wonder.
That economic optimism number for August, by the way, is the highest of Trump's presidency. And it is the longest stretch ever — 23 months — above the make-or-break level of 50 for the optimism index.
The near-eight-year rebound from the Financial Crisis marked a giant dead spot in the U.S. economy of slow economic and jobs growth. But that now appears definitively over, at least in most Americans' minds. That can be seen in one of IBD/TIPP's lesser-known indicators, our "Financial Stress" index. Our pollster, Raghavan Mayur, began keeping it in December of 2007, the very month the financial crisis turned into the Great Recession.
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04.28.2025