A Narrow House Margin Could Produce a Chaotic Vote for Speaker

As the November election approaches, forecasts of the outcome in the House have evolved. No doubt, the uncertainties will continue. But little attention has been given to the implications of the growing possibility that the House majority could be razor-thin, for one party or the other. That, in turn, could result in a chaotic handling of the House’s customary first decision and vote—the selection of the Speaker.

Given statements that have been made by renegade Democrats and Republicans—including both incumbents and prospective freshmen in each party—who oppose their party’s current leadership, there is a real risk that when the 116th Congress convenes next January nobody will receive the requisite majority for Speaker from those present and voting, as required by House rules.

Already, some junior House Democrats have demanded the ouster of Nancy Pelosi as their party leader. On the other side of the aisle, some Freedom Caucus Republicans have warned that they again will refuse to go along with the GOP Conference’s selection of their party leader. As election campaigns intensify, the number of rebels more likely will grow rather than shrink—especially among those who have had no stake in earlier leadership choices. That could force a multi-ballot House contest for the first time since 1923, when nine ballots were required to select the Speaker. (More below on that little-known conflict.)

In addition, there were two instances prior to the Civil War in which deadlocks in selecting the Speaker, which resulted from conflicts over slavery, required three weeks (and 63 ballots) to resolve in 1849 and two months (and 133 ballots) in 1855. Those separate battles were settled by creative use of House procedures and control by plurality rule, rather than a majority.

So, what would happen next January if—hypothetically—one party has 220 members of the 435 who have taken the oath of office, but three of them stubbornly object to their party’s formal nominee for Speaker? The short answer is that nobody knows. Given the speculative nature of this scenario, including the impossibility of knowing prior to November who will be casting votes and what will be the partisan margin, serious maneuvering would not start until the days immediately following the election.