10 Known Unknowns of the Midterms

Talk to consultants in either party and they’re sure of a few mutually accepted truths about the midterm elections on Tuesday. White women with college degrees will be the decisive voting bloc -- the very people who push Democrats over the top, or not. National security issues -- from the debacle in Helsinki to President Trump’s confession to falling in love with Kim Jung Un to his refusal thus far to hold the Saudi Royal family accountable for the murder of a journalist -- aren’t likely to tip the scales. Neither is an object of the president’s focus and wrath, the investigation Special Counsel Robert Mueller is conducting into Russian collusion in the 2016 election.

There are other, potent factors that can break both ways, either for incumbents or challengers, Republicans or Democrats. These are the Known Unknowns, to quote former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. They have driven the campaign and will determine voter turnout, but just how much we won’t know until next week.

1. Immigration -- The separation of families was a liability for the GOP, but the caravan was midterm manna for Trump. It began at just the right time for him to tell Americans watching hordes of people traveling from Honduras and Guatemala that criminal elements, including various and sundry “Middle Easterners,” were intent upon invading the homeland. More than 5,000 active military personnel are now deployed to convince voters something is being done, and this number could stretch, Trump says, to 15,000 or more. Though no laws have been changed, and no new restrictions on asylum have been enacted, what is likely is that when the dwindled caravan arrives, its entry will surely be more organized and less dysfunctional with active duty troops on hand. The administration is making clear this is supposed to be a deterrent, which Trump and his top advisers thought the separation of families would be -- but which turned out not to. But just in case this new deterrent fails as well, President Trump says he’s got an executive order coming that will end birthright citizenship. That would actually take a constitutional amendment and not an Oval Office document, but Trump knows some people will believe whatever he says. Democrats have stayed silent on the caravan, agreeing this is a likely vote-getter for Republicans. If voters think the military will stop the flow -- and that Trump’s “executive order” will end birthright citizenship -- will they still vote next week on this issue or has he mitigated the threat and assuaged the fear he worked so hard to talk up?

2. Domestic terrorism -- Eleven worshipers were slaughtered in their house of worship Saturday by a man obsessed by a belief that globalists and Jews are bringing invaders into our country through the caravan. Last week more than a dozen pipe bombs were sent to CNN headquarters in New York and the homes of former presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, along with other prominent Democrats targeted by a man with pro-Trump and anti-Democrat messaging plastered from his social media accounts to his white van. Republicans and Democrats alike have lowered the discourse bar with incendiary rhetoric, but President Trump refuses to accept that as president of the United States his words weigh more than those of toxic talk-show hosts or the biggest screamers in Congress. Will this violence, and the despair it produced across the county, motivate or paralyze voters?

3. Health care -- We all remember when the Democrats passed Obamacare by a purely partisan vote and paid with a butt-kicking in both the 2010 and 2014 midterms.  The Affordable Care Act -- the job killer that killed off so many jobs for Democrats in office -- is now more popular than the GOP tax cuts. Republicans swore to repeal and replace but didn’t do either, then killed off the individual mandate in their tax law, which means the insurance pools are older and sicker.  Meanwhile, the Trump administration is backing a lawsuit, along with 20 state attorneys general, that argues provisions of the ACA are unconstitutional, including the guarantee of coverage for pre-existing conditions. Trump tweets and repeats at rallies that Republicans support protecting coverage for such conditions. While that claim doesn't pass the laugh test, some people believe whatever he says. Will a majority of voters? If Democrats win, health care is the issue that will secure the victory for them.