Donald Trump raised a few eyebrows when he scheduled campaign events Monday and Tuesday during the final week before the election in Michigan and Wisconsin, two so-called "battleground" states where polling unequivocally favors his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton.
"Surely he would be better off camping out in places where the polls are closer, such as Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio — that's what many Republican strategists believe," wrote the New Yorker's John Cassidy, who suggested Trump's appeal to non-college educated white voters in Michigan and Wisconsin, where they take up a large portion of the electorate, has just not been effective.
"The Trump campaign, though, is operating according to its own logic, or illogic," he added.
Polling certainly does seem to support this point: RealClearPolitics' average of polls shows Trump down 7 and 5.7 in Michigan and Wisconsin respectively. Precedent too stands in Trump's way. Michigan hasn't voted for a Republican since 1988; in Wisconsin it was 1984.
But at least one polling analyst sees "justifiable" evidence that the GOP nominee's gamble is a good one.
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04.29.2024