House Republicans are taking a lot of flak for not condemning Donald Trump. "Anti-Trump forces are now expressing frustration that they've been met with a wall of silence — or worse, a rationalization of Trump's candidacy — from Capitol Hill," reported National Review a few days ago. "Republican leaders' silence on Trump is inexcusable," the Washington Post editorialized late last month. And on Sunday, the New York Times columnist Ross Douthat labeled House Speaker Paul Ryan a "case study" in the GOP's "paralysis … and curious mix of denial and resignation" in the face of Trump.
Why the silence from Ryan's Republicans in the House? Well, one reason might be that Trump is winning their districts.
Each member of the House represents a district, average size about 700,000 people. According to my calculations from a breakdown of voting provided by 538's Nate Silver, 115 congressional districts voted in the race from Iowa through the first Super Tuesday. Trump won the majority of them.
Go through them alphabetically. There are seven congressional districts in Alabama. Trump won all of them. Alaska has one CD; Trump lost. There are four CDs in Arkansas; Trump won three. Fourteen CDs in Georgia; Trump won 13. Four CDs in Iowa; Trump won none. Nine CDs in Massachusetts; Trump won all. Eight CDs in Minnesota; Trump won none. Two CDs in New Hampshire; Trump won both. Four CDs in Nevada; Trump won them all. Five CDs in Oklahoma; Trump won none. Seven CDs in South Carolina; Trump won them all. (Silver did not have a breakdown of Tennessee, which has nine CDs, but Trump won the state handily.) Thirty-six CDs in Texas; Trump won none. Eleven CDs in Virginia; Trump won seven. Vermont has one CD; Trump won.
Counting Tennessee's congressional districts for Trump, that's 63 out of the 115 CDs for him in the first-voting states. (Trump was also second in many of the CDs he lost.)
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05.08.2024