'Trumpism Without Trump' Fails

With a week to go before Virginia’s governor’s election, Democrats were wringing their hands.

Republican Ed Gillespie was gaining on Democrat Ralph Northam in the polls and a series of ads attacking Northam as weak on crime and immigration had seemingly put the Democrat on the back foot. President Trump’s surprise win last year, in defiance of all polling data, intensified liberal fears of a Gillespie upset.

They shouldn’t have worried. On Tuesday evening, Northam didn’t just defeat Gillespie—he and his party exceeded Democrats’ wildest hopes. Northam’s nine-point margin of victory was nearly double the margin by which Hillary Clinton carried the state last year. Behind that victory, Democrats swept the statewide offices of governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. They also flipped at least 14 seats in the 100-member House of Delegates, and could pick up four more after recounts. They needed 17 to take control of the body for the first time since 2000. Before the election, Virginia Democrats were looking down the barrel of total Republican control of the state government; now, they may end up controlling everything but the state Senate (which held no elections this year).

“In Virginia, it’s going to take a doctor to heal our differences, to bring unity to our people, and I’m here to let you know that the doctor is in,” Northam, a pediatrician, said at his victory party in Fairfax City. “Whether you voted for me or not, we are all Virginians. I hope to earn your confidence and support.”

Democrats have been craving a win like this for a year, so you can forgive them a little crowing. But in reality, it’s hard to say what national lessons can be gleaned from Tuesday’s results—Virginia’s off-year elections are notoriously poor predictors of broader electoral trends.