Trump Won't Be Able to Talk Putin Out of His Alliance with Iran

Since President Trump's election, American allies and other foreign policy observers have been curious to know how the new White House intends to resolve an apparent contradiction. How is it possible that Trump seems keen to make some sort of deal with Vladimir Putin while expressing belligerent contempt for Russia's key Middle East ally, Iran? There may be an answer: Recent press reports indicate the Trump team will try to lure Russia away from Iran. The chances for success are slim.

Moscow and Tehran's alliance was cemented in Syria, where both have historically backed the Assad regime, first Hafez al-Assad and later his son Bashar. Both have supported Bashar al-Assad against an array of opposition forces since the Syrian conflict erupted in the summer of 2011. Four years later, with Assad and Iranian forces in danger of losing the war, Qassem Suleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps's expeditionary Quds Force unit, visited Moscow to beg the Russians for more help. Putin consented. He escalated Russia's position in Syria with men and materiel, and marked it with naval installations and airstrips. Ever since, Russian planes have flown in support of Iranian, Hezbollah, and other Iranian-backed ground forces. Rumors regarding points of conflict between Russia and Iran continue to circulate, but this is not, as many have called it, a "marriage of convenience," but a strategic alliance in which each actor depends on the other.

The notion that it is possible to separate Moscow from Tehran is apparently based on two historical precedents. National Security Adviser Michael Flynn was intelligence chief for Joint Special Operations Command in Iraq during the surge. Coalition forces were able to ensure relative stability in Iraq as the Sunni tribes were induced to turn their weapons on foreign fighters they had previously aligned with to battle coalition troops.[The Weekly Standard]Subscribe Now

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Sections ▼Trump Won't Be Able to Talk Putin Out of His Alliance with IranFrom the February 20, 2017, issue of THE WEEKLY STANDARD.4:37 PM, Feb 14, 2017 | By Lee SmithA firm embrace: Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, left, with president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and PutinPhoto credit: NEWSCOM

Since President Trump's election, American allies and other foreign policy observers have been curious to know how the new White House intends to resolve an apparent contradiction. How is it possible that Trump seems keen to make some sort of deal with Vladimir Putin while expressing belligerent contempt for Russia's key Middle East ally, Iran? There may be an answer: Recent press reports indicate the Trump team will try to lure Russia away from Iran. The chances for success are slim.

Moscow and Tehran's alliance was cemented in Syria, where both have historically backed the Assad regime, first Hafez al-Assad and later his son Bashar. Both have supported Bashar al-Assad against an array of opposition forces since the Syrian conflict erupted in the summer of 2011. Four years later, with Assad and Iranian forces in danger of losing the war, Qassem Suleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps's expeditionary Quds Force unit, visited Moscow to beg the Russians for more help. Putin consented. He escalated Russia's position in Syria with men and materiel, and marked it with naval installations and airstrips. Ever since, Russian planes have flown in support of Iranian, Hezbollah, and other Iranian-backed ground forces. Rumors regarding points of conflict between Russia and Iran continue to circulate, but this is not, as many have called it, a "marriage of convenience," but a strategic alliance in which each actor depends on the other.

The notion that it is possible to separate Moscow from Tehran is apparently based on two historical precedents. National Security Adviser Michael Flynn was intelligence chief for Joint Special Operations Command in Iraq during the surge. Coalition forces were able to ensure relative stability in Iraq as the Sunni tribes were induced to turn their weapons on foreign fighters they had previously aligned with to battle coalition troops.

The second precedent is Egyptian president Anwar Sadat's decision after the October 1973 war with Israel to leave the Soviet fold and ally with the United States. Sadat's move proved such a boon to America's Cold War efforts against Moscow that American policymakers tried to get other Soviet clients to jump, chief among them Syria's Hafez al-Assad, who nonetheless clung to Moscow.

Even after the Cold War, American diplomats continued their efforts in the Levant by courting Hafez's son Bashar, to see if he'd abandon his patrons in Tehran. Bashar never had any intention of jumping; he had simply learned from his father that dangling possibilities in front of American diplomats brings them to the table with incentives and promises, all of which you can pocket to enhance your own prestige without giving the Americans a thing.