As election evening began in Midtown Manhattan, people who wanted Donald Trump to win — loyal Republicans who risked the scorn of conservative critics to work hard on Trump's behalf — were not only not sure he would win, they were actively trying to imagine the best-case scenario for his defeat.
About 4:30 in the afternoon, I ran into a well-connected Republican operative on Sixth Avenue. She thought Florida didn't look good — Trump would have to make up too many votes to counter a heavy Hispanic turnout. But North Carolina looked good, as did Ohio and Iowa. All that was OK, but without Florida — no Trump victory.
We talked about whether Trump would surpass 206 electoral votes, which was Mitt Romney's losing total in 2012. The answer was yes — just winning Ohio would do that trick. And beating Romney might quiet some of those NeverTrumpers who predicted Trump would lead the GOP to an utter blowout loss of historic proportions.
But then the Republican expressed doubt about her doubts.
"I'm more nervous than I was in 2012," she said. Back then, at 4:30 in Boston, she knew full well that Romney would lose. This time, although the road looked tough for Trump, there was enough of an air of unpredictability about the results that, even though she thought Trump would falter, she wasn't nearly as sure as four years ago.
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01.11.2025