The Worst Primary Argument

If you’re running for your party's presidential nomination, you'd better not rely on the notion that you have the best chance of being elected in the general election. The most compelling evidence at the moment is John Kasich's campaign—that is, its lack of success.

Kasich and his campaign manager John Weaver emphasize the electability issue day after day. They point to polls that show Kasich running ahead of Hillary Clinton in one-on-one matchups. "Nearly every poll shows that both Trump and Cruz will get crushed by Hillary Clinton in the fall," Weaver said in an email. "If we want to win the White House, there is only one Republican candidate who can defeat Hillary." Kasich.

The problem is a simple one: Voters in primaries are rarely persuaded by this argument. Even if they believe electability matters, they tend to believe the candidate they favor is electable. This is especially true when Republicans look at Clinton as the Democratic nominee. They think she's beatable by their candidate, even if polls indicate otherwise.

Charlie Black, who's been involved in GOP presidential races since 1972, says electability has never worked in primaries. "I've tested it over the years in polls," Black says. "Primary voters don't care about electability."

Exit polls bear this out. In last week's Wisconsin primary, only 11 percent said electability was "the top candidate quality." In contrast, 34 percent said the top quality was that a candidate "shares my values," 34 percent said a candidate's ability to "bring change" mattered most, and for 20 percent the most significant quality was telling it "like it is." Kasich finished a distant third in Wisconsin with 14 percent of the vote.