The Hysterical Overreaction to Trump's Taiwan Call

Did Donald Trump just set the stage for World War III?

It's probably too early to know for sure, but judging from the hysteria currently sweeping political journalism and the foreign policy establishment, we might all be wise to begin buying canned goods, ammo, and tillable land. Donald Trump, you see, spoke by phone to Taiwanese President Tsai-Ing Wen.

The problem isn't what was said on the call itself. By all accounts, the discussion was the kind of routine post-election congratulatory call one might expect between democratically elected leaders of friendly nations. The concern is how others, most especially China, will react to the call. The speculation? Not well.

For a smart non-hysterical overview of the U.S.-Taiwan-China conundrum, read this from The Atlantic's David Graham. To oversimplify, the United States and Taiwan are strong trade partners, and the United States plays a crucial role in bolstering Taiwan's defenses ($46 billion in arms since 1990, per Graham)—all of which bothers China, which considers Taiwan part of China. So the United States, Taiwan, and China have maintained since 1979 a delicate balance built on pretense. Trump's call is undoubtedly a provocative challenge to that fragile co-existence.

Was it deliberate? This seems to be a chief concern of those criticizing the call. The short answer: We don't know. Several top Trump advisers (John Bolton, Tom Cotton, among others) have long urged a less deferential posture toward the Chinese, particularly on Taiwan. Trump himself spent much of his campaign selling a more confrontational approach to China, especially on trade. Trump's spokesmen have told reporters on background that the president-elect consulted his "team" before accepting the call. And the Taipei Times reported Trump's "Taiwan-friendly campaign staff" set up the call. It's possible Trump meant to send a signal by talking to Tsai.