The Future of Trumpism

In only ten days the voters will have spoken and Donald Trump will be planning his move to Washington—to the new Trump International hotel, in which he says he will be spending lots of time. The hotel is spitting distance from the White House where the Obamas are making certain everything will be in order when the Clintons return. That would be in sharp contrast to the condition in which the departing Clinton team left 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue when its last tenancy ended. George W. Bush and family found graffiti accusing Bush of having stolen the election, computers with the "W" removed, and assorted "damage, theft, vandalism and pranks" according to the General Accounting Office. And discovered that almost $200,000 of furniture (china, a sofa, rugs, flatware) had been, er, mistakenly taken by the Clintons, who in response to having that error pointed out later sent a check for $86,000 and returned stuff valued at $28,000.

Trump is sounding out possible investors to join him in establishing some sort of media enterprise, perhaps Trump TV to capitalize on his ability to attract large audiences and, for existing networks, large profits, which Trump feels were rightfully his. But more important than the future of Donald Trump is the future of Trumpism. To many this is a virulent version of populism, a "movement", to use Trump's term, that is anti-immigrant, racist, misogynist, a home for those unable to adjust to a globalized economy. And therefore a threat to the future of the Republican party, in which it has made its home, and to the civility of American politics.

Never mind that legitimate questions can be raised about the accuracy of these charges: A worker who is seething at a political class that has done nothing while his job disappeared overseas, and permitted a wave of illegal immigrants to enter the country and put downward pressure on his wages, as scholars now have documented, need not be a racist to oppose open borders. And never mind that the "lost" civility of American political discourse exists mainly in the minds of those unfamiliar with the history of American presidential campaigns.

There is general agreement, even among those appalled by Trump's style and character, that at least some of the grievances of his followers require the attention of a political class until now unaware of or insensitive to the needs of these forgotten Americans. As it does, it will be benefitting from several recent developments that just might act to cool the anger of Trump's millions of supporters.

For one thing, the mostly lower-paid Trump supporters are seeing their fortunes improve. The unemployment rate that soared to 10 percent during the Great Recession, has fallen in half, to about its pre-recession level of 5 percent. The number of white persons in poverty, presumed to be an important Trump constituency, declined by almost 3 million in the last reporting year. Increases in statutory minimum wages, their effect on employment aside, have been raising take-home pay of the lower paid. If these trends continue, and early reports on third quarter GDP and projections for holiday sales and hiring suggest they will, the discontented, if not joyous, may be less angry.