The Al Qaeda Threat Grows

Fifteen years after the September 11, 2001, hijackings, the al Qaeda threat is growing. Al Qaeda has the capacity to attempt a mass casualty attack inside the U.S. and Europe today.

Many assume that al Qaeda is a spent force, especially after the surge of Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s Islamic State. But they are wrong. Years of erroneous assessments have clouded our vision of an enemy that remains committed to its anti-American cause.

The Obama administration has repeatedly claimed that drone strikes have crippled al Qaeda's "core," which is not well-defined. Much of the reporting on al Qaeda focuses on this senior management layer, which al Qaeda refers to as its "general command."

However, al Qaeda has taken steps to replenish its leadership ranks, with some of its top figuresfinding safe haven inside Iran. Moreover, al Qaeda probably has more members today than ever and its geographic reach has greatly expanded.

Documents recovered during the Abbottabad raid show that Bin Laden and his lieutenants managed a cohesive global network. By early May 2011, al Qaeda had grown to include groups everywhere from West Africa to South Asia. Despite the rise of the Islamic State, which was disowned by al Qaeda in early 2014, al Qaeda has continued to expand under the leadership of Bin Laden's successor, Ayman al Zawahiri.