The 2016 Race All Comes Down to North Carolina

It all comes down to North Carolina.

In the final days of the 2016 election, the Tar Heel State has become the center of the political universe. There are more competitive races here than in perhaps any other presidential swing state: Republican senator Richard Burr is fighting to retain his seat, as is the GOP governor, Pat McCrory. McCrory's Democratic opponent, Roy Cooper, is leaving open the attorney general post he's held for 16 years—giving Republicans a chance to steal away a coveted statewide elected office. To get a sense of how politics is dominating life in North Carolina, just turn on the TV: During one hour of Friday evening's local news broadcast in Raleigh, nearly every single ad was on behalf of a political candidate or PAC.

On top of it all, of course, is the razor-thin presidential race. Both campaigns have made North Carolina a priority in the final days of the campaign. For the Democrats, that included a Thursday rally with Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in Raleigh and a Friday stop by President Obama in Fayetteville near Fort Bragg. Clinton will also hold her final rally before Election Day late Monday night in Raleigh. On the Republican side, Donald Trump rallied in Selma near Raleigh on Thursday as well as his Saturday fly-in rally in Wilmington. Trump's running mate, Mike Pence, made an appearance in Greenville on Friday, and Trump returned a final time Monday for an event in Raleigh.

"North Carolina's going to lead us to a great, great victory all across the United States of America," Pence proclaimed in Greenville.

That great victory's far from a sure thing. According to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Trump has a one-point lead here. The final Quinnipiac poll of North Carolina found Clinton with a two-point lead, while the final New York Times poll found the race is tied. In other words, it's the definition of a toss-up. Why? There are a couple reasons.