"This is a conservative wish list," said House Speaker Paul Ryan, as he cheerfully ticked off the main provisions of the American Health Care Act (AHCA), the Republican bill to replace Obamacare, at his press conference last Wednesday. So, what's not to like?
Plenty, it turns out. The problem with this particular wish list is that it fails to provide a coherent framework for curbing the relentless rise in medical prices—the same inflation that plagued Democrats at the voting booth since 2010. During Mr. Obama's eight years in office, the medical cost trend—the prices that insurers pay for health services, drugs and devices—rose 79 percent. These increases were passed on to consumers in the form of higher premiums and cost sharing. Annual health bills for a working family of four soared by nearly $11,000.
Even if private medical costs were to grow "just" 5.6 percent a year going forward—well below the average of the past five years—annual health bills for the typical working family will go up by another $13,000 over the extended length of the Trump presidency.
The fact that many Republicans are tempering their support for the AHCA makes common sense. The lesson of the past eight years is that politicians who enact their wish list on the thinnest of partisan margins own the result. The Democrats did this when passing Obamacare in 2010, and were massacred in the next three elections, losing a total of 62 House seats, nine Senate seats, 12 governorships and 958 seats in state legislatures. Republicans would be crazy to proceed with insurance reforms that don't also include reductions in medical costs.
As Congress contemplates replacing Obamacare with something that actually works, here are four facts to keep in mind:
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04.27.2024