Taking Stock of the GOP Race

With the March 15 slate of Republican primaries in the books, 29 of the 50 states have now voted. Donald Trump, the leader, not only hasn't won half of the votes to date (and hasn't even won half of the votes in a single state), but he hasn't even won three-eighths of them. Rather, Trump has won 37 percent of the vote, Ted Cruz has won 27 percent, and John Kasich has won 13 percent. (Candidates who have since exited the race have combined to win the remaining 23 percent—17 percent for Marco Rubio, 6 percent for the others.)

As of 1:45 EST on March 16, Trump has won 661 delegates (48 percent of the 1,386 allotted to date), Cruz has won 406 (29 percent), and Kasich has won 142 (10 percent). (Others have combined to win 177 (13 percent).

So far, 56 percent of the total delegates available from coast-to-coast have been allocated—1,386 of 2,472. To win a majority of the total delegates—1,237—prior to the convention, Trump must win 53 percent of the remaining delegates. Cruz must win 77 percent of the remaining delegates. Kasich is now mathematically eliminated. Even if he were to win all 1,086 remaining delegates, he would still fall short of 1,237. It is clearly a two-man race.

Some have openly wondered how Cruz can start beating Trump when Trump has won the vast majority of the races so far—and when the Deep South is already in the books. There are three reasons to believe he can do so.

First off, Cruz will benefit from Marco Rubio's exit. For weeks, people have been calling for a one-on-one race between someone and Trump. We're now getting close to that.