Shock Poll Shows Trump at Just 50 Percent with GOP Primary Voters

Donald Trump has been president for just over eight months. The 2020 election is more than three years away. So why is his chief pollster asking if Republicans would vote for him in a presidential primary today? That’s what Tony Fabrizio asked 1,500 self-described Republican or Republican-leaning voters nationally earlier this month.

“If there were a Republican Primary for President held today, which ONE of the following potential candidates would you be MOST likely to vote for?” read the question. Just 50 percent named Trump. Among those who are considered “definite GOP primary voters,” that number was 54 percent. Just 49 percent of those definite primary voters said they would “definitely” vote for Trump. Among definite primary voters, Ted Cruz got 13 percent, John Kasich 10 percent, and Ben Sasse and Tom Cotton got 1 percent each.

Fabrizio trumpeted the results on Twitter, saying they showed Trump “crushing a hypothetical” field for 2020. “So much for the ‘buyer’s remorse’ the DC insiders are convinced the GOP has.”

I’ve asked for more data and details about the poll from Fabrizio, who did not respond.

Perhaps the result isn’t as bad as it looks for Trump. Ariel Edwards-Levy points to a poll from 2010 asking a similar question about a potential Democratic field. Just 64 percent of those asked said they’d support the incumbent president, Barack Obama, while 16 percent said they’d support Hillary Clinton and 6 percent Howard Dean. That’s better than Trump’s position, though not as high as you might expect for an incumbent president.