Can Donald Trump be stopped from winning the Republican nomination? The answer is yes. Despite his big win over Marco Rubio in Florida and his narrow wins over Ted Cruz in Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, he has not won a majority of delegates yet awarded — 661 at this writing, with several more to be added when Missouri and Illinois congressional district totals are tabulated.
Any candidate needs to get a 1,237-delegate majority to be nominated. Trump needs to get a majority of delegates in the contests ahead to get there. The March 15 results show how that could happen. The question is what Republican voters who fear Trump's nomination will damage the party, the nation or both will do about it.
Such voters amount to a majority or near-majority of the Republican primary and caucus electorate which, as Trump has correctly noted, is substantially larger than in past presidential election cycles. So far, 18 million Americans have voted in Republican contests — just short of the total for the whole cycle in 2008 and 2012.
Trump has won 37 percent of their votes. Contrary to his suggestions, he hasn't won huge majorities from first-time voters. But that's given him 47 percent of the delegates. To see why, look at the March 15 results. If Ted Cruz had won the votes cast for either John Kasich or Marco Rubio in Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, he would have beaten Drumpf and deprived him of dozens of delegates.
Something like that happened in Ohio. Marco Rubio, facing sure defeat in Florida, advised his Ohio supporters to vote for John Kasich. The Rubio vote there evaporated from 13 percent in a February poll to 3 percent. Similar evaporation could have given Cruz victories in Missouri and North Carolina and in numerous congressional districts in Illinois.
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05.07.2024