One year to the midterms: Where the 2018 races stand

One year out from the midterm congressional elections, it is hard to imagine things looking much better for the Democrats on paper. Voters tell pollsters they prefer Democratic congressional candidates to Republicans — the so-called “generic ballot” — by an average of 10 points. In one October survey by CNN, the margin was 16.On Nov. 6, 2018, a third of the Senate and all 435 seats in the House will be up for election. In seeking to erase the Republicans’ 24-vote House majority, Democrats get to start with 23 GOP-held districts that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016. But some party operatives believe they have viable candidates in as many as 80 districts, allowing them to play offense all over the country.

“Viable” may be in the eye of the beholder, but Democratic candidates are plentiful even in some marginally competitive congressional districts and, in many cases, they are flush with cash. One Democratic operative said that 35 of the party’s challengers outraised Republican incumbents in the last quarter while only two Republican challengers outraised Democratic incumbents.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has outraised its Republican counterpart for five months in a row, bringing in $9 million more last quarter. High-profile Republicans are starting to retire in both chambers, including some centrists and pragmatic conservatives whose districts could be competitive in a Democratic wave election: Reps. Pat Tiberi of Ohio, Dave Reichert of Washington, and Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania.

President Trump’s job approval ratings have been hitting new lows. Gallup found only 38 percent approving of Trump, with one of the firm’s daily tracking polls going as low as 33 percent (62 percent disapproved). The RealClearPolitics average has Trump below 40 percent while Congress, controlled by Republicans, is even less popular.

Then, there is the simple matter of history. In 18 of the last 20 midterm elections, the president’s party has lost seats. The two exceptions, both recent, prove the rule. The Democrats gained seats under Bill Clinton in 1998, during the impeachment saga, and the Republicans did too under George W. Bush in 2002, in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.