Obamacare on shaky ground as re-enrollment begins

On Wednesday, open enrollment begins for the fifth time under Obamacare. There is much uncertainty in the insurance market and premiums are expected to continue to rise. According to Gallup, the uninsured rate rose to 13 percent, up from 10 percent last year — most experts attribute the rise to ballooning individual insurance costs, diminished choice, and competition (due to the exit of many insurance providers), as well as volatility within the insurance market. Insurers need to be able to predict their payouts and costs year after year in order to more accurately price premiums. With the state of Obamacare in limbo due to inaction in Congress, predicting the future of healthcare has been difficult.

What to expect during open enrollment

First of all, this year’s open enrollment period is significantly shorter — it's only six weeks long instead of three months as in previous years. In addition, there is far less advertising on the national level as compared to the years during the Obama administration. President Trump cut the advertising budget by 90 percent. In addition, insurance costs are rising and many will be unable to afford their premiums. Many will be affected, particularly those in the individual market who make too much money to qualify for subsidies or tax credits.

In addition, with the elimination of subsidy payments back to insurance companies by Trump’s executive order in October, many insurers are likely to pull out of the exchanges. Those that remain will have to raise rates. Many counties in the U.S. only have one choice of insurer, which will cause further price increases. According to Kaiser, more than half of marketplace enrollees expect premium increases to create a substantial financial burden. So far, the price of bronze plans increased, on average, 18 percent; gold plans, 16 percent; and platinum plans, 24 percent. Due to confusion, increased costs, and a shorter enrollment window, I expect a lower rate of enrollments for 2018.

I am certain that both parties will use scaled-back enrollment as political fodder — Democrats will blame Trump and Republicans will blame Democrats for an unwillingness to move on healthcare reform. In short, more of the same in Congress.

How did we get here?

In one phrase: lack of congressional action. After years of bemoaning Obamacare, the Republican majority cannot even put forward one piece of reasonable legislation. Infighting and intraparty power plays have left Republicans in both the House and Senate impotent. Democrats, while in the minority, are happy to do nothing and blame Republicans for the failure of Obama’s legacy-defining legislation.