Nomentum in the GOP Race

After Donald Trump lost the Wisconsin primary two weeks ago by a double-digit margin to Ted Cruz, he was garnering about 54 percent in the New York GOP primary polls. But Trump didn't suffer any negative consequences in New York because of his failure in Wisconsin. He won his home state on Tuesday night with 60 percent of the vote. John Kasich came in second at 25 percent, and Ted Cruz came in third at 15 percent.

At this point in the GOP race, the absence of momentum shouldn't be surprising. Trump unexpectedly lost the Iowa caucuses on February 1. The next week, he paid no price in New Hampshire and won the state by 20 points. Trump went on to capture South Carolina, but he won the first-in-the-South primary with a smaller share of the vote than he had been getting in the polls on the day of his big New Hampshire victory.

And on it went. Republicans in Utah didn't care how Republicans in Florida voted. Republicans in New York didn't care how Republicans in Wisconsin voted. Ted Cruz must now hope that voters in Indiana won't care how Republicans on the East Coast voted.

Trump seems likely to take 89 or 90 of New York's 95 delegates, but that doesn't change the fact that the GOP nomination will hinge on the results in Indiana on May 3, and California on June 7 primary.

In the two states combined there are 229 delegates up for grabs. And there's still a lot we don't know about the most important remaining contests. With less than two weeks until the Indiana primary, there haven't even been any public polls released. Governor Mike Pence and much of the Indiana Republican establishment have been reluctant to get involved.