Kim Guadagno's Bid for New Jersey Governor Has Two Huge Problems

Next week, a populous, diverse, and politically interesting state is going to elect a new governor.

And nobody seems to care.

That’s because Democrat Phil Murphy appears to be cruising toward victory in New Jersey. The Cook Political Report rates the race as “Likely Democratic” and Sabato’s Crystal Ball lists it as a safe Democratic gain (Chris Christie, the current governor, is a Republican). And for months, poll after poll has come out showing Murphy ahead of Republican Lieutenant Gov. Kim Guadagno by double digits.

So why is Guadagno faring so poorly? There are two big reasons.

First, New Jersey is a truly blue state. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the state by 14 points while winning the popular vote by two. President Obama also won the state by double digits twice. The state is racially diverse, and most of the population lives in a large metro area, meaning that its demographics favor the Democrats. The president is also not especially popular there. In September a Morning Consult poll put Trump’s approval at 38 percent.