It's Decision Time on Iran, Again

Following the recent protests across Iran and the impending deadlines related to the nuclear deal, President Trump faces a few big choices this week—and on some of them, his staff in the White House still isn’t quite sure what he’s going to do.

Trump is expected to decide once again not to recertify that the Iran deal is in the national security interests of the United States, as he did for the first time in October. That certification decision is required by the federal law governing the U.S. involvement in the deal.

But a set of separate deadlines, starting Wednesday and extending through Saturday, compel the president to determine whether to extend or rescind waivers on sanctions against Iran. The waivers were granted and have been renewed regularly as part of the agreement among the United States, the European Union, and Iran. One administration source says it’s likely—but not guaranteed—that Trump will extend those waivers in a last-straw effort to toughen up enforcement of the deal.

Part of that effort requires buy-in on stricter enforcement from the European allies, whose companies have been doing business in Iran for the last few years thanks to the lifting of sanctions. It’s not immediately obvious if any of the staff-level engagement with the Europeans has produced assurances, though the White House has always expressed optimism on that front. The White House believes that a key to getting buy-in from Europe is a modification to the relevant 2015 law, the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act. Here’s how the Wall Street Journal describes the proposal:

The discussions have touched on ways to allow for U.S. sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile program and reduce the frequency with which the president must certify Iran’s compliance with the deal from quarterly to perhaps once or twice a year, along with other areas of concern.