Is Virginia Permanently Blue Now?

On November 7, Democratic lieutenant governor Ralph Northam became the governor-elect of Virginia, beating Republican Ed Gillespie by a nine point margin. Two days later, the political world shifted almost all its focus to Alabama. Various news outlets have now reported that while Republican candidate Roy Moore was in his 30s, he pursued teenage girls, allegedly sexually assaulting a 14-year-old and a 16 year old. Since then his standing in the polls has dropped, and almost the entire political world has (rightly) focused on that race.

If you’re not following the Alabama race, you should be. We’ve written on it extensively and will continue to do so. But I want to discuss Virginia a little bit more before the conventional wisdom on this race congeals. Specifically, I want to try to figure out how much of Northam’s victory can be attributed to static factors like Virginia’s partisan lean and demographics, and how much is due to dynamic factors like the national political environment and campaign strategy.

This question matters: If Virginia is now simply a blue state no Republican can ever win, Republicans might feel a bit less panicked about their chances in the wider 2018 midterm elections. And if Democrats misunderstand why they won in Virginia, they make incorrect choices about how to allocate resources next year.

There’s more than one way to attack this question, but I’ll start by describing where Virginia is politically and then detail what that means for 2017 and beyond.

Virginia Is Light Blue—That Alone Didn’t Guarantee a Northam Win