Is Trump Really Going to Protect American Trade?

It’s put-up or shut-your-tweet time for the president. He has been promising to Make America Great Again by replacing free trade with protectionism, and now has enough opportunities to do just that in cases involving aircraft, dishwashers, solar panels, steel and cars from Korea and, of course, trade with Mexico and Canada.

And there should be no excuses: The president’s power to act in trade matters without approval of Congress is far greater than in the case of health care, the wall for which Mexico will (supposedly) pay, tax reform, and immigration. Given those failures, the president needs a win, a promise kept. Trade is the place he can find it.

Start with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). American, Canadian, and Mexican negotiators are working on revisions to the 23-year-old agreement, which Trump calls “the worst trade deal” ever signed by the United States. He is still threatening to pull out of the pact, but most believe he is playing “bad cop” to improve the bargaining power of his negotiating team.

Trump wants to reduce America’s $64 billion trade deficit with Mexico by increasing the portion of automobile components produced in the United States.; pushing up factory wages in Mexico from their current level of between $1 and $4.50 per hour; and ending the use of international arbitration panels to resolve disputes. Canada wants the revised NAFTA to include “progressive” clauses dealing with climate change, indigenous rights, and gender equality. Mexico, its inbound foreign investment falling as a result of the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the negotiations, just wants the talks concluded quickly, with as little damage as possible to its economy.

Ironies abound. American negotiators are pasting entire passages of the Trump-scuttled Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement into their proposed new NAFTA draft.