Is Bernie Sanders Really in the Lead for the 2020 Democratic Nomination?

Independent Vermont senator Bernie Sanders is in the lead for the Democratic nomination according to a new ranking by the Hill. Last week, Hill reporters interviewed Democratic insiders and reported that although no candidate is clearing the field, Sanders, former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren and others were generating excitement among top Democrats. The toplines of recent polls seem to agree. Sanders led in New Hampshire as well as multiple national polls (Biden also led in a national poll and was second in the New Hampshire poll).

So is Sanders actually the front-runner?

Maybe, maybe not. Either way, I’m not sure that’s the most important question at this point in the primary process. Democrats are certainly in the early phases of competition for the 2020 nomination, but most voters don’t really tune into the contest until we get much closer to the Iowa caucuses. So rather than trying evaluate whether Sanders is or isn’t the front-runner, I’m going to run through a few of the issues I’m tracking and explain why they might help you watch the Democratic primary in a different way.

Don’t just look at the toplines—compare results to his past performance.

Bernie Sanders won 23 contests and about 43 percent of the popular vote in the 2016 Democratic primary. His support was built partially on a liberal base: He often won very liberal and young voters, but it wasn’t always clear how many of them were specifically casting votes for him rather than against Clinton.