Two major millennial polls came out this week that shouldn’t be seen as unrelated.
First, an ABC News poll revealed Donald Trump’s recent surge in the polls was driven by a 36 percent swing among millennial voters. In March, Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by 39 percent among voters under age 30; now, he trails her by just 3 percent. Even if he keeps this margin under 10 or even 15 percent, he’s guaranteed a victory. Mitt Romney lost this demographic by more than 20 percent.
Second, a study from Pew Research showed that more millennials are living with their parents (32.1 percent) than living with a spouse or significant other (31.6 percent). This is the first time this has occurred in 130 years, according to Pew.
If Trump wants to maintain his millennial support, it won’t be easy — and he will need to appeal to these millennials struggling to earn enough money to leave their parent’s homes. Clinton is going to do everything she can to pander to young voters. We can expect more promises for free or subsidized education, as well as other temporary jobs programs. She needs the youth base that President Obama won.
Trump’s current poll bump with millennials is a combination of his ability to unify young Republicans, combined with a distaste of Hillary Clinton from Bernie Sanders supporters. The latter could be a temporary trend, and if so, Trump has only a small window of opportunity to grab the demographic.