Down by 12% or tied? Which poll is right? Here’s how you can tell

If there’s one question I’ve received more than any other in this election, it’s, “what’s going on with the polls?”

Some say Hillary Clinton is going to win in the biggest landslide since Reagan in 1984; others say she has a slight lead similar to Obama’s in 2012, while a few say that Trump will win by a squeaker similar to George W. Bush in 2000.

Here’s my best examination of the state of the race, polls, and early voting.

The best indicator of election turnout is excitement levels, registration levels, and previous results. These were the election results in the last four presidential races by party:

They have been very similar in all of the elections, Democrats have been between 37 to 39 percent, 32 to 37 for Republicans, and 26 to 29 for Independents.