Donald Trump has owned the polls, scientific or otherwise: polls about debate performance, polls measuring support in primary states, even "entrance" polls of Iowa caucus goers before they cast a vote Monday night. But Trump fell short in the nation's first primary state, with Texas senator Ted Cruz the victor and Florida senator Marco Rubio a late-charging challenger.
This weekend, THE WEEKLY STANDARD published a story comparing the final poll numbers with the actual results of past Iowa caucuses, and what those comparisons implied about the possibilities of this year's election. In 2012, for example, former Sen. Rick Santorum used an 8-point rally over his final poll average to eek out a win against Mitt Romney, the eventual Republican nominee for president.
It turns out that Monday produced a similar surge -- from two candidates. With 98 percent reporting, here is how the tallies for Cruz, Rubio and Trump stacked up against their final RealClearPolitics polling averages, with the difference noted in parentheses:
Trump: 24.3 / 28.6 (-4.3)
Cruz: 27.7 / 23.9 (+3.8)
Rubio: 23.1 / 16.9 (+6.2)