Countdown to Cleveland

The rap on Ted Cruz has been that his strength is limited to (1) caucus states and (2) states with large proportions of evangelical Christians. But Cruz undid that analysis with his double-digit victory over Donald Trump in Wisconsin last week.

Cruz beat Trump 48 percent to 35 percent in a primary election (so much for the caucus argument). And he did so by besting the New York billionaire among virtually all groups, whether defined by income, age, or educational attainment. Trump did manage to win, by 9 points, that quarter of the Wisconsin GOP primary voters who described themselves as moderate or liberal; but Cruz beat Trump by 21 points with the remaining three-quarters who described themselves as somewhat or very conservative.

With a broad-based win in Wisconsin, Cruz demonstrated he has a realistic path to winning the GOP nomination at an open convention. If Cruz can win a handful of key Midwestern and Western states—Indiana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana, and California—he can keep Trump from getting the majority of delegates that are needed to win the nomination.

Here's what to watch for as Cruz and Trump face off in the 16 states that have yet to vote.

April 19: New York (95 delegates)

Trump is on track to score a big win in his home state. The only question is just how big it will be. As we went to press, Trump was at 53 percent in the Real Clear Politics average of New York polls, with John Kasich and Ted Cruz each more than 30 points behind. In New York, a candidate gets 14 delegates if he gets 50 percent of the statewide vote (those delegates are awarded proportionally if no candidate hits 50 percent). Each of New York's 27 congressional districts awards three delegates. If the someone wins 50 percent in a congressional district, he gets all three delegates. If the winner is below 50 percent, he gets two delegates and the runner-up gets one.