Could Trumpcare Sink Republicans in 2018?

Not much over the past couple of days has made the passage of the American Health Care Act seem more likely. One of the House bill’s chief Republican critics, Arkansas senator Tom Cotton, told ABC's George Stephanopoulos Sunday that the proposal "as it's written today…cannot pass the Senate."

Cotton was harsh not only on the bill's prescription for Obamacare but on the political fallout for Republicans who support it. "I believe it would have adverse consequences for millions of Americans and it wouldn't deliver on our promises to reduce the cost of health insurance for Americans," he said. "So, I would say to my friends in the House of Representatives with whom I serve, do not walk the plank and vote for a bill that cannot pass the Senate and then have to face the consequences of that vote."

Then Cotton went a step further: "I'm afraid that if they vote for this bill, they're going to put the House majority at risk next year." What does Trump think of Cotton's prediction, and how much does the president think about how to protect his Republican majority in the House? The White House is mum. "Contact the RNC," wrote press secretary Sean Spicer in a curt email.

Republicans Are Damned If They Do or Don't

Is Cotton's warning alarmist or shrewd? It's obviously too soon to tell—the House committees have voted the bill through but GOP leadership won't bring to a floor vote until after the Congressional Budget Office scores it—but Cotton's sentiments reflect a growing sense among some congressional Republicans that the party is not just squandering a great chance to implement a conservative health-care program. With this bill, the GOP may be sowing the seeds of their demise. Bad policy and bad optics, say Cotton and the various Republicans (from Freedom Caucus members in the House to Maine moderate Susan Collins) urging the House to start over, will make for bad politics.

House speaker Paul Ryan pushed back on this on CBS's Face the Nation, agreeing with President Trump's statement that without passing this particular Obamacare repeal, 2018 will be a "bloodbath." "Look, the most important thing for a person like myself, who runs for office and tells the people we are asking to hire us, this is what I will do if I get elected. And then, if you don't do that, you are breaking your word," Ryan said.